Tropical Storm Gabrielle Tracker: Long-range forecast models

A tropical depression is expected to develop in the Atlantic later this week or over the weekend as the system moves west toward the Caribbean. At this stage, the storm’s strength and potential path—including how close it may come to the U.S., the Caribbean islands, or Bermuda—remain highly uncertain because the tropical wave is still far out in the eastern Atlantic.

According to the National Hurricane Center, the system could eventually strengthen into Tropical Storm Gabrielle, which would become the seventh named storm of the season.

Storm Gabrielle may form this weekend

Tropical Storm Gabrielle May Form

According to The Weather Channel, a tropical system in the eastern Atlantic has the potential to strengthen into Tropical Storm Gabrielle this weekend. 

Current forecasts indicate the storm could pass near the Leeward Islands next week as the Atlantic hurricane season nears its peak. 

At this point, the system is expected to remain far from the U.S. East Coast.

However, meteorologists closely monitor the disturbance due to the heightened storm activity typical for this time of year.

As of now, the tropical wave is located southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, roughly 2,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. 

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports that “gradual development” is possible in the coming days. The system is currently producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

The NHC estimates a 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours and a 70% chance over the next seven days.

If the system intensifies into Gabrielle, it is expected to track west-northwest across the Atlantic, with a possible path toward San Juan and, later, Miami.

Storm Gabrielle may develop in the eastern Atlantic

Hurricane season 2025 was predicted to be abnormal

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has already drawn national attention, with Hurricane Erin causing significant disruption in August.

Much like the current system being monitored, Hurricane Erin began as a tropical wave far out in the Atlantic. It quickly intensified, being classified as a tropical storm and then rapidly upgraded to a hurricane. On August 16, Erin strengthened from a Category 1 to a Category 5 hurricane in just 24 hours—a dramatic escalation in intensity.

Although Erin caused flooding in coastal communities from North Carolina to New Jersey, damage to homes and infrastructure was relatively limited compared to the storm’s strength.

Meanwhile, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has updated its 2025 hurricane season outlook, reaffirming its projection for above-normal activity through the official season end on November 30.

The NOAA now estimates:

• 13 to 18 named storms with winds of at least 39 mph.

• 5 to 9 hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher.

• 2 to 5 major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or more.

While the probability of a more intense-than-average season has decreased slightly—from 60% in May to 50% in August—meteorologists continue to stress the importance of preparedness.

“As we witnessed last year with significant inland flooding from hurricanes Helene and Debby, the impacts of hurricanes can reach far beyond coastal communities,” said Laura Grimm, acting NOAA Administrator, in a recent report.

A 2025 hurricane risk analysis from Cotality, a data-driven tech firm, further highlights the vulnerability of U.S. homes. The report estimates that more than 33.1 million residential properties—with a combined reconstruction cost value of $11.7 trillion—face a moderate or higher risk of hurricane wind damage.

Florida, Texas, North Carolina, New Jersey, New York, and Massachusetts are among the states with the highest concentration of at-risk homes and potential reconstruction costs.

Prepare for a hurricane before Gabrielle makes landfall

Experts emphasize that the best defense against hurricanes is early preparation, ideally before the season begins on June 1. Families should stock up on essentials like water, nonperishable food, and a go-bag with critical supplies well in advance.

Because insurance coverage can become limited or unavailable once a storm approaches, it’s important to review and secure policies early to ensure proper protection. Financial preparedness—such as setting aside emergency funds—can also make a big difference.

Family planning is also vital. Let's establish evacuation routes, meeting points, and a clear communication plan for all household members.

Prepare an emergency kit before a hurricane makes landfall

When a storm threat becomes imminent, homeowners should transition quickly to protective measures like boarding up windows, securing outdoor items, and following evacuation orders if needed.

You can read more preparation tips for a hurricane at Weather365’s blog.