Hurricane in Florida Coast Expected to Develop Slowly, Experts say

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is closely monitoring a weather system that could develop into the next tropical depression or hurricane in Florida coast this weekend.

Hurricane in Florida coast expected to develop slowly

According to the NHC’s 8 p.m. advisory, an area of low pressure is expected to form either off Florida’s Gulf Coast or in the Atlantic along a weakening frontal boundary, with the system now forecast to shift more north-northeast than previously thought.

Forecasters say environmental conditions are only marginally favorable for slow development, but a tropical or subtropical depression could form this weekend or early next week as the system drifts northward or northeastward.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is likely across parts of the southeastern U.S., especially along the west-central Florida coast. The NHC assigns a 40% chance of development within seven days.

If the system strengthens enough, it would be named Tropical Storm Chantal, following Andrea and Barry earlier this season.

The National Weather Service in Melbourne expects increased rain chances starting Thursday due to moisture accumulation along the frontal boundary, with most areas forecast to receive 1 to 4 inches of rain.

Repeated heavy rainfall over multiple days could increase flooding risks in some locations. The timing of showers and storms is uncertain, as cloud cover may limit daytime heating, shifting storm activity more to overnight and morning hours.

Models differ on where the low will form and how it will move—some place it near Florida’s Nature Coast in the northeast Gulf, which would keep rain chances high statewide, while others show formation offshore near Jacksonville with drier air in northern Florida.

The system may also meander between the Gulf and Atlantic coasts, resulting in episodic rainfall that allows some recovery time and limits widespread flooding.

Rain chances could remain elevated through Sunday and Monday, depending on the system’s path. This marks Florida’s first tropical threat of 2025, following a 2024 season when three Gulf Coast hurricanes struck the state.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, and NOAA forecasts 13 to 19 named storms this year, including 6 to 10 hurricanes and 3 to 5 major hurricanes.